After a beautiful Saint Patrick's Day Weekend, this upcoming week will feature mostly average temperatures with little in the way or any rain or snow. Winter is winding down and we are getting closer to spring and summer. Temperatures will warm throughout the week and will represent spring by the end!
Monday will feature temperatures that are right around average for this time of year. Lower to mid 40's will be the theme across the region with some areas in higher elevations in the upper 30s. Right around average for this time of year. Temperatures tend to overachieve during this time of year as models are not able to pick up how strong the warm air influence really is. With mostly sunny skies from Central New Jersey on northward I would not be surprised to see some upper 40s readings especially around the major cities. Some snow will actually make its way through southernmost areas as a weak low pressure spins up and creates some precipitation. Southern New Jersey will likely see some light snow with little to no accumulation expected.
Overnight Monday temperatures will fall to within a few degrees of the freezing point on either side for the whole region. No snow is expected.
Fully sunny skies will be the prominent weather feature on Tuesday as high pressure makes a visit to the region. Which will likely deflect some possible precipitation to our north. Temperatures will be very similar to Monday and may be a tick warmer especially for southern areas as the sun heats our atmosphere. A light breeze from the south will also likely help warm areas more than what models currently see, however this will keep coastal areas cooler as the waters are still cold from this winter.
Overnight expect mostly clear skies with lows in the upper 20s and low 30s.
Well above normal temperatures will take hold on Wednesday as a storm moves to the north of the region. Temperatures will range from 1-4 degrees above normal and will make it feel like a nice early spring day. Highs will be in the low to mid 50s for New York City on south including the Hudson Valley as warm air gets trapped there more easily. As for the rest of the areas highs will generally be in the mid to high 40s. As high pressure exits clouds will begin to roll in especially during the later afternoon hours.
Clouds will begin to roll in overnight on Wednesday as a low pressure move towards the region. Temperatures will drop into the low 30 to mid 30s near 40 in some areas further south.
Along with the low pressure comes the possibility of some rain and snow on Thursday. Some models are developing a coastal storm that may come close enough o the region to possibly bring us some impacts but right now that looks unlikely. Another blog will be written about that tomorrow as the picture becomes more clear. Right now I am expecting well above normal temperatures as the weak low pressure drags warm air up north from the south. Southern New Jersey to New York City will warm into the mid 50s while the rest of the region will likely stay in the high 40's. Rain and snow showers will be evident in the morning hours but once daybreak hits everyone will go over to a light rain. Some sun may peak out during the mid-late afternoon hours especially in New Jersey and Long Island, possibly even warming temperatures further.
Overnight temperatures will fall into the high 30's will some 40 readings in bigger cities due to the urban heating effect. Some areas further north around the hills of Massachusetts may experience temperatures around the freezing point.
Friday will feature partly cloudy skies and right around average temperatures. Temperatures will likely hover right around 50 for southern regions will most others will be in the 40s. There may be a case of rare snow with high temperatures in the 40's and 50s's like the GFS is currently showing. This happens about once a year and is due to warm air flooding the low levels of our atmosphere while cold air from the departing low pressure makes the upper atmosphere cold enough for some snow. Of course at 50 degrees nothing would accumulate however it would be a fun site as winter comes to a close.
Some snow showers may stick around for the overnight hours but should not cause any issues. Lows will be in the mid to high 20s with lows right around freezing for coastal areas.
Cowan, Levi. “Forecast Models.” Tropical Tidbits, 3/17/2019, www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/.