As has been the theme for this year, another weak low pressure system will gift most front yards in the northeast with a bit of snow. It will not be much, but with snow lasting into the beginning of the Thursday morning rush hour, that is never good. This is an update from yesterdays post.
As I spoke about yesterday, the southern trend in the modeling has ceased and has taken a step back towards the north. The reason models were forcing the storm south yesterday was because of slight height rises in the NAO region bumping the storm south but that seems to have stopped and moved backward.
As you can see per the high resolution NAM model, overnight there was quite a jump to the north that has yet to reverse today. This will keep the heaviest precipitation out of I-95 on southward for the region.
I spoke about the dry air concerns yesterday and how that can limit snowfall and that fear is truly coming to fruition today. Models have more dry and and not much heavy snow which explains why I cut back so much on my snowfall totals from yesterday. This dry air will be compounded with terrible lifting in the upper atmosphere cause snow to be light and not as intense.
As you can see above in the DGZ zone, there is not a high Omega value. We call this "lifting" and when the omega value is low there is a lack of lifting air. Lifting air causes heavy precipitation rates as well as bigger flakes. This is present in many of our bigger snowstorms but not so much here. We can visualize this with the graphic below.
While there is some lifting at the 850mb layer, it is rather marginal with the most intense snow centered out east over the ocean closer to the center of the storm. The one exception to this is Cape Cod, which I think may surprise and be the jackpot of this storm. That is yet to be seen on modeling though but I would watch it over the next day.
Now, on to my latest snowfall forecast!
I cut back totals a good deal from yesterday as I wanted to see models hold the good moist air and decent dynamics in place however they did not. This combined with the fact that storms have had a tendency to under preform this year makes me side on the low end of things. Most storms this year that relied on the clipper moisture alone have all ended well below forecasted numbers so I am certainly taking that into account for my ongoing forecast.
General all southern regions were shaded by a contour from yesterdays map. I now have New York City in less than one inch as well as the lower Hudson valley and the southern half of Connecticut. I have the one inch line running from northeast Pennsylvania just south of Kingston and Hartford and including nearly all of Rhode Island. I have 3-5" in select areas in the hills of Massachusetts and on the cape for better dynamics at play in those areas. Some slight adjustments may be needed tomorrow but I currently like where I stand.