A power cyclone is set to undergo rapid strengthening tonight into tomorrow morning and impact the northeast. Portions of the south east are already experiencing gusty winds, as well as heavy rain and snowfall. The storm will intensify while moving north east before impacting our region later tonight.
A storm is brewing in the south east currently and is expected to move into our area within the next few hours. Thankfully the storm is expected to stay far enough away from the coast to not bring the worst ashore however there will still be some fringe impacts felt from this strong cyclone. Current analysis shows the storm centered just off the outerbanks while being slightly south.
As you can see by the bright yellows and reds the storm is carrying some very heavy precipitation with it which will produce very heavy rainfall, specifically over eastern southern New England. The worst of the impacts will be felt in that region with heavy rain, very strong winds and possibly some heavy snow to top it all off. Between now and the next few hours the storm is expected to drop over 24mb which would certify it to be bombogenesis. This is when the central pressure of a storm system drops over 24mb or more in 24 hours. We can visualize this with the graphic below.
As you can see there are more isobars surrounding the storm as it moves northward indicating strengthening. This will help expend the precipitation shield all the way back to around New York City. It will also create very rough surf and seas and will increase the possibility of coastal flooding. A long with a strengthening storm system comes an increase in winds and wind gusts. A storm of this magnitude will produce strong winds but thankfully it is far enough offshore to keep the strongest winds over the open ocean.
As you can see winds increase exponential and will be over hurricane force at the core of the storm, exceeding 100 mph at times. Overland however wind gusts will top out at around 30mph aside from areas closer to the center of the storm. Cape Cod, which is notorious from taking a lashing from these big coastal storms, will experience the worst of the rain and wind. Gusts could be as high as 60mph in this region.
Rain will be a factor but not anything huge. The worst amounts will be just around an inch with a sharp cutoff to the west. Montauk may see about an inch of rain while New York City may not see much of anything. The worst hit areas will be eastern southern New England as they will be the closest to the center of the storm system.
Another part to this dynamic system will be the potential snowfall the accompanies all the other factors onthe backside of the storm.
As you can see moderate rain will flip to some snow in southern New England as our storm continues to strengthen offshore. This strengthening allows cold air to wrap around this system and drop potential heavy snow at times. The flip will be brief only lasting a few hours before ending Wednesday morning however it will be long enough to cause some travel disruptions. The snow along with the wind will create terrible conditions in the morning. Areas that experience snowfall will likely only see an inch or two mainly on grassy areas as the rainfall from before will help prohibit much accumulation.
After the storm system passes we will have a beautiful day on tap for much of the region. Abundant sunshine and temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s will create a beautiful spring day, even with the windy conditions.