A developing storm that is currently dropping over a foot of snow in parts of the upper mid-west and creating the first widespread severe weather outbreak in the south is due to batter our area with wind and rain. This one will yet again cut to the west of us and bring rain instead of any type of wintry precipitation. As the storm develops it will bring a deluge of rain and unrelenting winds to the area.
Rain will spread across the region starting around 8am Sunday morning and bring with it heavy rain along with some ice to elevated areas. The storm will deepen quite a lot into the low 970s or high 960s mb and will give the region problems with flooding and create windy conditions. Everyone will dry out Sunday night through Monday morning however the wind will persist.
Rainfall will be heavy at times however it will not last too long as it arrives in the morning and departs by the nighttime. Here is the NAM models take on how the storm develops during the day Sunday.
As you can see heavy rain makes its way into the region and brings along some ice to start for northeast Pennsylvania and the upper elevations of Massachusetts. Icing will not be too bad as eventually the rain will wash it away but travel is not advised right once the freezing rain begins n these areas. As depicted by the model the heaviest rain will be a brief blob that makes its way across central New Jersey and Long Island and that is where I expect the highest totals to be. Below I attached my most updated rainfall forecast.
I believe the highest rainfall totals will be centered over the New York City Metro area with 1-1.5" of rain expected. I am leaning on the lower end of this number but I will not rule out a 1.3/1.4" reading somewhere where heavier banding sets up. Just outside of that I have an area of .75-1" that goes just south of Scranton, Hartford, and Providence and just north of Philadelphia. All of the cities just listed are in .5-.75" of rain. It will not be a complete washout with major flooding concerns however some flood advisories may be needed especially in and around New York City.
The rain is not the only threat though, the real danger during this storm is going to be the wind. Down below I attached my maximum wind gust forecast.
As the low pressure that is west of the region matures, it will develop into a powerful cyclone with a minimum pressure in the 970s. This, creates a very high pressure gradient that causes strong winds as mother natures attempts to balance out the atmosphere by having air from higher pressure zones race towards the lower pressure zones. This will cause some areas to see gusts up to 60mph this will cause power outages in some areas, more likely as you head towards the coast. The whole region is expected to experience wind gusts of about 50mph. 55mph winds will be centered more towards the New York City Metro region as they are closer to the coast. The worst of the winds will be on eastern Long Island and Cape Cod as they are the most exposed to the ocean. What is unique about this storm though, is how long the winds will be strong for. Gusts in excess of 40mph will be present for most of the area for over a day! This will increase the threat for power outages and cause problems with crews attempting to restore power.