Updated: Feb 25, 2019
In a year of little snow for most of the region, mother nature is throwing us a bone for once. A light snowfall is expected to impact the region Sunday night through Monday morning and could drop 3 or more inches in some spots. This will create rather slippery travel down to the coast.
A developing low pressure is currently spreading snow across the upper mid west before setting its sights on impacting the northeast in the coming days. This setup is very fragile in my opinion and has multiple ways to boom or bust.
Both the GFS and NAM have very similar solutions and have held to their guns the past few runs consecutively. Attached are the NAM and GFS respectively for early Monday morning.
Seeing both models have an agreement on the overall evolution as well as totals and temperatures is quite an encouraging sign. However, there are a few models that are pointing to solutions that end up further the south. The RGEM and ECMWF are both forecasting the heaviest swath of snow going through NYC into southern New England. For my forecast I decided to go with a mix of the two for right now. I believe there will be a much better picture tomorrow as we will likely see one model trend towards the other.
The latest RGEM actually came in colder and snowier for areas down to the coast and NYC. I still don't think this particular solution holds much merit yet but all other major models seem to have taken a step further south and colder today so the RGEM might be leading the way.
As you can see above we have a very strong 250mb jet which should help precipitation to expand to the north. A strong 250mb jet promotes lifting in the upper atmosphere and snow growth. However there are a few inhibiting factors. Dry air as well as some confluence in northern New England will help limit how far north snow will be able to get.
Overall I am currently leaning towards the NAM and GFS idea with a slight mix of RGEM and ECMWF. Attached below is my snowfall forecast.
I have 1-3" starting in southern Connecticut as well as southern New England up north indefinitely. South of that I am forecasting a coating to an Inch down to Philadelphia, this includes New York City. The potential is there for higher totals further south of models continually trend colder and snowier, however, only about 30 hours before the onset of the storm there is nly so much time for this to trend in either direction.